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The Miami Heat will travel to the Smoothie King Center on Thursday night to take on the New Orleans Pelicans in an interconference matchup. This will be the final matchup between these teams as they played back on Christmas in Miami where the Heat picked up a 111-98 victory. The Heat are seventh in the East with a 17-18 record and are coming off a 94-80 loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday. The Pelicans are 11th in the Western Conference with a 15-19 record. This will be the second game of a back-of-back as they faced off against the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday.
These teams have a bit of separation between them on the statistical side of the game but have some of the more talented rosters. Let’s take a deeper dive into the matchup to decide where we should be placing our wagers. PUBLISHED BEFORE FIRST GAME
Center of Attention
The Miami Heat have been relying on center Bam Adebayo to carry the offensive load this season. He is averaging 19.2 points, 9.5 rebounds, 5.4 assists, a block, and 0.9 steals in 33.9 minutes on the court. He is shooting the ball at a great clip with his limited range as he is 56.3 percent from the floor, 33.3 percent from three, and 84.7 percent from the free-throw line. In his last game against the Hawks, Adebayo played 33 minutes and finished with 11 points, two rebounds, and three assists. If he can figure out a way to be more effective in his time play, the Heat will be in a great spot here.
The Miami Heat have been a solid defense to begin the year as they are giving up 108.8 points per game, which is fifth in the league. In their last game against the Atlanta Hawks, they allowed 94 points on 34-of-71 (47.9 percent) from the floor, 13-of-36 (36.1 percent) from beyond the arc, and 15 free-throw attempts. If they can figure out how to limit the number of open shots from the field being taken against them, they should be great in this game.
Sophomore Star > Sophomore Slump
Power forward Zion Williamson has been one of the best young players in the league as well. He is averaging 25.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 0.9 steals, and 0.7 blocks in 33 minutes on the court. He needs to keep improving his shooting numbers as he is 61.4 percent from the floor, 31.6 percent from the three-point line, and 70.7 percent from the charity stripe. In his last game against the Jazz, Williamson played 34 minutes and finished with 26 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, a steal, and six turnovers. If he can figure out how to clean up his sloppy play, it will do wonders for New Orleans.
— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) March 4, 2021
The New Orleans Pelicans have been one of the lesser defenses in the league at this point as they are giving up 115.9 points per game, which is 26th in the NBA. In their last game against the Utah Jazz, they allowed 124 points on 46-of-101 (45.5 percent) from the floor, 17-of-43 (39.5 percent) from beyond the arc, and shot 18 free-throws.
The Bottom Line
What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The adjusted defensive ratings are something to look into as it tells you how good a defense has been more than the traditional stats. The Heat are fifth in the league with a 109.2 defensive rating while the Pelicans are 28th in the league with a 116.5 defensive rating. Guarding against the three-point shots is also crucial as Miami is tied for 12th in the league allowing 36.5 percent from distance while New Orleans is 28th in the NBA allowing 39.4 percent from three. The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games while the Pelicans are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games. The numbers and trends all point towards Miami covering the spread on the road here.
Want another opinion on this pick?
Full-Game Total Pick
These teams do not take much of the shot clock in their possessions as the Heat are 17th in the league with 14.5 seconds per offensive possession while the Pelicans are ninth in the league taking 14.2 seconds per offensive possession. Looking at the totals in the last five games is a good way to see where to go in these bets. Miami is averaging 209.6 points after a brutal game against the Hawks while New Orleans is averaging 240.6 total points in the same span. The over has hit in five of the last nine Heat games while it also hit in nine of the last 10 games for the Pelicans. All in all, go with the OVER in this game.