Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat

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The Indiana Pacers (18-22) torched the Miami Heat (22-20) 137-110 on Friday night, and today they go for the two-game sweep. Friday night was the first matchup between the two teams this season, and Indiana showed why they may be an under-the-radar team that could make a playoff push. The Pacers hit 58.4% from the field and 55.6% of their threes as they methodically pulled away during the game. Indiana led by 10 at the half and extended that lead to 20 points by the end of the third quarter.

Malcolm Brogdon (27 points) and Justin Holiday (17 points) combined to hit 12 of 17 three-point attempts in the game. Domanta Sabonis added 13 points and 15 rebounds in the win.

Miami hit just 26.5% of their three-point attempts. The Heat were led by Bam Adebayo with 20 points and eight rebounds Jimmy Butler added 17 points and eight rebounds.

Both teams are dealing with some injuries in this one. JaKarr Simpson is considered day-to-day with a knee injury, but did not play Friday against Miami. For the Heat, Avery Bradley is out (knee), while Udonis Haslem (Health and Safety) and Andre Iguodala (hip) are questionable for Sunday’s matinee.

Can Pacers Stay Hot on Sunday

The Indiana Pacers were red hot on Friday night in their win over Miami. This afternoon, they get to play the Heat again. The question is can they stay hot from the field? In their win on Thursday night, Malcolm Brogdon hit seven of his nine three point attempts. Justin Holiday hit five of his eight attempts as well. One reason that the Pacers have been better recently is the addition of Caris LeVert. LeVert made his debut last week and has averaged 14.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, and 4.0 apg in his four games with the Pacers.

The Pacers are led by Malcolm Brogdan and Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis has averaged 20.3 ppg, 11.3 rpg, and 6.4 apg. Brogdon has averaged 21.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, and 6.2 apg while hitting 40.4% of his three-point attempts. Doug McDermott, a 37.3% three-point shooter, has averaged 13.4 ppg and 3.8 rpg.

Offensively, the Pacers are 12th in the NBA in effective field goal percentage (54.5%), 15th in turnover percentage (12.5%), 24th in offensive rebounding percentage (19.7%), and 22nd in free throws per field goal attempts (.183). Defensively, Indiana is 12th in opponent’s effective field goal percentage (53.6%), eighth in opponent turnover percentage (13.5%), 23rd in defensive rebounding percentage (76.5%), and 23rd in opponent’s free throws per field goal attempts (.207).

Heat Try to Even Series With Indiana

The Miami Heat had no answer for Indiana’s shooting on Friday night, but that happens sometimes. The Heat feel good about their chances today to even the season series, as it is unlikely that Indiana will shoot as they did on Friday.

Jimmy Butler (21.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 7.5 apg) leads the Heat offensively. Bam Adebayo is averaging 19.0 ppg, 9.5 rpg, and 5.4 apg. Kelly Olynyk (10.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg) hit just 2-of-11 from the field on Friday and looks to improve his shooting performance. Tyler Herro has been outstanding off the bench, averaging 15.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, and 3.4 apg to lead the second unit.

As a team, the Heat have an effective field goal percentage of 53.4%, 19th in the league. Miami is 28th in the league in turnover percent (14.0%), 28th in offensive rebounding percent (18.6%) and sixth in free throws per field goal attempts (.205). Defensively, the Heat are eighth in the NBA in opponents effective field goal percentage (52.9%), fifth in opponent turnover percentage (13.8%), 20th in defensive rebound percentage (77.0%), and ninth in opponent free throws per field goal attempts (.180).

The Bottom Line
What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet

The likelihood of Indiana shooting like they did Friday is slim to none. But, the Pacers have been playing well offensively since LeVert was added to the lineup. They should be in the 110s-120s in this game. The Heat were favored by four on Friday, and there is a chance that they will be the underdogs in this one. I like Indiana to win a close one, so will pick Miami to cover if the spread is 4.5 or more in favor of Indiana.

Miami -4.5

Want another opinion on this pick?


Full-Game Total Pick

Both teams have trended toward the OVER, and that is the direction I’m taking as well. The Pacers are unlikely to repeat their shooting performance from Friday, but Miami also struggled from the three point line. They are likely going to improve that number a little. I could see this game going into the 240s, so I’m taking the OVER on anything 235 or less.