Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks

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The Indiana Pacers will travel to the American Airlines Center on Friday night to take on the Dallas Mavericks in an interconference matchup. This will be the second and final matchup between these two teams this season as they played in Indiana back on Jan 20 and the Mavs won 124-112. The Indiana Pacers are ninth in the Eastern Conference with a 20-23 record and are coming off a 116-111 win over the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday. The Dallas Mavericks are seventh in the Western Conference with a 23-19 record. They are riding a two-game winning streak after winning on the road Wednesday against the Minnesota Timberwolves 128-108.

These teams are on equal footing in terms of stats on both sides of the floor so it will be interesting to see which team can go on an extended run. Let’s take a deeper dive to determine where we should be placing our wagers.

Guard Up

The Indiana Pacers have been dependent on point guard Malcolm Brogdon to carry the offensive load this season. He is averaging 21.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, six assists, and 1.1 steals in 35.5 minutes on the court. He is shooting the ball well as he is 46.1 percent from the floor, 39.8 percent from deep, and 87.7 percent from the free-throw line. In his last game against the Pistons, Brogdon played 32 minutes and finished with 16 points, three rebounds, three assists, two blocks, and four turnovers. If he can figure out a way to cut down on the turnovers, it will do wonders for the Pacers.

 

The Indiana Pacers have been below-average on the defensive side of the ball to begin the year as they are giving up just 113.2 points per game, which is 22nd in the league. In their last game against the Detroit Pistons, they allowed 111 points on 44-of-83 (53 percent) from the floor, 11-of-28 (39.3 percent) from beyond the arc, and 19 free-throw attempts. If they can figure out how to limit the amount of open three-point shots, they will be in a better spot here.

One of the Best Stars

The Dallas Mavericks have been relying on point guard Luka Doncic to carry the offensive load this season. He is averaging 28.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, 9.1 assists, 0.6 blocks, and one steal in 35.2 minutes on the court. He is shooting the ball at a decent clip as he is 48.2 percent from the floor, 36.7 percent from beyond the arc, and 74.8 percent from the charity stripe. In his last game against the Timberwolves, Doncic played 27 minutes and finished with 15 points, four rebounds, four assists, a block, a steal, and four turnovers. If he can figure out a way to cut down the turnovers, it will be a closer game.

The Dallas Mavericks are an average defensive team this season as they are giving up 111.1 points per game, which is tied for 13th in the NBA. In their last game against the Minnesota Timberwolves, they allowed 108 points on 38-of-85 (44.7 percent) from the field, 12-of-38 (31.6 percent) from deep, and 26 free-throw attempts. If the Mavericks can figure out how to defend without fouling in this game, they will be in a better spot.

The Bottom Line
What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

Turnover percentage is an important number as transition baskets are a better way to score for the opponents. The Pacers are 11th with 13.6 percent of possessions ending in turnovers while the Mavericks are third with 12.5 percent of possessions ending in turnovers. Shooting inside of five feet is a key number as those are the easiest looks you can get. Indiana is 19th in the NBA shooting 59.3 percent while Dallas is eighth shooting 63.6 percent from the rim. The Pacers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games while the Mavs are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games. The numbers and trends are all pointing towards the Dallas Mavericks covering the spread at home in this game.

Prediction:
Dallas -4.5

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Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

The adjusted offensive ratings are a big factor into the decision. The Pacers are 15th in the NBA with a 112.1 offensive rating while the Mavericks are ninth in the NBA with a 114.8 offensive rating.  Looking at the last handful of games can tell us where we should be leaning. Indiana is averaging 236.2 total points in their last five games while Dallas is averaging 234.7 total points in their last three games. The over has hit in six of the last seven games for the Pacers and in two of the last three Mavericks games. All in all, go with the OVER in this game.

Prediction:
OVER 227